Europe’s elite club competition is entering its most thrilling phase. The UEFA Champions League last 16 draw has taken place in Nyon, Switzerland, and the ties are set. Eight seeded sides who cruised through the league phase without the need for a playoff will now face eight battle-hardened survivors who had to scrap their way through the knockout rounds.
From blockbuster clashes to fascinating underdog matchups, this draw has delivered everything football fans could have asked for.
First legs are scheduled for March 10 and 11, with second legs following on March 17 and 18.
Here is a full breakdown of every tie and what is at stake.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Chelsea
The headline clash of the draw. Defending Champions League holders PSG host Chelsea in what promises to be one of the most high-profile ties of the round. The French giants edged past AS Monaco in their playoff, while Chelsea finished sixth in the league phase, with their standout result being a stunning win over Barcelona on Matchday 5.
Chelsea’s young and inconsistent squad will be severely tested at the Parc des Princes. PSG carry a 54.5% win probability and go in as heavy favourites, but Chelsea’s raw talent makes this dangerous for anyone. The second leg at Stamford Bridge could be decisive.
Galatasaray vs Liverpool
Liverpool, the top finishers from the league phase, face a Galatasaray side that pulled off one of the playoff round’s great escapes. The Turkish champions trailed Juventus 3-0 in the second leg before scoring twice in extra time to advance 5-2 on aggregate.
Liverpool will be wary of their opponents’ electric atmosphere and ability to produce moments of brilliance from nothing. That said, the Reds enter as strong favourites with a 55.1% win probability. Galatasaray playing the second leg at home in Istanbul adds intrigue, but Liverpool’s quality across the squad should see them through.
Real Madrid vs Manchester City
The tie everyone wanted. Two of the most decorated clubs in recent Champions League history are set to collide once again in the last 16. Real Madrid needed a hard-fought playoff win over Benfica to get here, while City dropped into the playoff bracket after a difficult league phase before progressing.
The numbers make this astonishingly tight. City hold a marginal 39.9% win probability compared to Madrid’s 34.2%, with the draw at 25.9%. The second leg at the Etihad is likely to be one of the great European nights of the season. History, prestige, and quarter-final glory are all on the line.
Atalanta vs Bayern Munich
Two teams who know each other well from German and European competition meet in a fascinating tactical contest. Atalanta have been one of the most entertaining sides in the tournament, advancing past Borussia Dortmund in dramatic fashion with a 98th-minute penalty in their playoff. Bayern, however, are operating at a different level of expectation.
The Bundesliga giants carry a commanding 58.4% win probability and will be keen to make the latter stages of a competition they have not won since 2020. Atalanta’s attacking fluidity under their system makes them capable of hurting anyone, but Bayern’s depth should prove decisive.
Newcastle United vs Barcelona
Newcastle’s remarkable Champions League journey continues. The Magpies, fresh from beating Qarabag in the playoff round, now face the might of FC Barcelona in one of the most anticipated ties for English football fans in years. Barcelona finished fourth in the league phase and come stacked with elite attacking talent.
The odds slightly favour Barcelona at 39.1% compared to Newcastle’s 35.7%, but St James’ Park will be an intimidating cauldron for any visiting side. This is a genuinely open tie and one of the draws most likely to produce a major upset.
Atletico Madrid vs Tottenham Hotspur
Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid are favourites in arguably the most lopsided tie of the draw on paper. Having survived a dramatic 3-3 draw against Club Brugge in the first playoff leg before winning 4-1 on aggregate, Atletico arrive dangerous and experienced.
Tottenham, who finished fourth in the league phase and receive a home second leg advantage, face a mammoth task. The numbers are stark — Atletico carry a 57.9% win probability with Spurs at just 18.7%. Simeone’s defensive discipline and Champions League pedigree make this a stern test for Postecoglou’s side.
Bodø/Glimt vs Sporting CP
The tie of the tournament for neutrals. Bodø/Glimt, a club from the Arctic Circle in Norway, have captured the imagination of European football. They became the first Norwegian side to win a knockout tie in the Champions League proper after stunning Inter Milan across two legs in the playoffs, having previously beaten Manchester City and Atletico Madrid in the league phase. They now face a Sporting CP side that finished seventh in the league phase and are genuine European contenders.
Sporting hold a slight edge at 38.5% win probability compared to Glimt’s 35.5%. But Bodø/Glimt have already defied expectations at every turn, and no one is counting them out.
Bayer Leverkusen vs Arsenal
The final tie of the draw pits two clubs with something to prove in Europe. Arsenal, the top-ranked team in the entire league phase and highest-seeded side in the draw, take on a Bayer Leverkusen side that recovered remarkably from a rocky start to their campaign — including a 7-2 humiliation against PSG — to progress past Olympiacos in the playoffs.
Arsenal go in as strong favourites with a 59.6% win probability, the highest of any team in the round of 16. The Gunners will have home advantage for the second leg and are desperate to translate domestic form into European success. Leverkusen, however, are a side built on resilience and will not be easily dismantled.
The Bigger Picture
Beyond the individual ties, the draw has also mapped out the potential route to the Budapest final on May 30, 2026, at the Puskás Aréna. The bracket is structured so that the winners of PSG vs Chelsea could face the Galatasaray vs Liverpool winners in the quarter-finals. On the other side of the draw, Real Madrid or Manchester City could meet Atalanta or Bayern Munich, while Newcastle or Barcelona face the Atletico or Tottenham winner, and Arsenal or Leverkusen meet the survivor of Bodø/Glimt vs Sporting CP.
Arsenal and Bayern Munich, as the top two finishers in the league phase, hold home advantage for potential semi-final second legs, a significant structural benefit if either side can make it that far.
One thing is certain: the road to Budapest just got a whole lot clearer — and a whole lot more exciting.
